You must hand it to Mark Zuckerberg. When most individuals have an costly midlife disaster, they purchase a sports activities automotive or develop a beard. He tried to purchase actuality itself. I simply purchased a sports activities automotive however didn’t develop a beard.
So..he tried to create (purchase) his personal universe. He known as it the Metaverse. It was a shiny new toy that he thought would change the world.
That shimmering techno-utopia the place we’d all don headsets the scale of toasters and maintain conferences as legless cartoons floating in beige digital places of work.
Zuckerberg wasn’t content material with merely proudly owning Fb, Instagram, and WhatsApp—the precise infrastructure of human procrastination. No, he needed to rebrand the complete firm as Meta and spend roughly $36 billion attempting to promote us on the concept strapping a display screen to our faces was the way forward for civilization.
However he isn’t alone. Elon Musk has a shiny toy besides it’s a distant planet in our present universe known as Mars. And that makes as a lot sense as Mark’s distraction and folly.
Besides that simply going to Mars may kill you and when you arrive stepping outdoors into the poisonous air and temperatures that may freeze you (minus 225 levels Fahrenheit on a foul day). And don’t take into consideration going to the seashore or a stroll within the forest.
However…again to Meta and Mark. It was such a compelling imaginative and prescient: A world with worse graphics than a 2003 PlayStation recreation, the place you may have conferences which can be by some means even extra miserable than Zoom.
In fact, traders weren’t thrilled. Seems it’s exhausting to promote folks on an escapist fantasy when actual life already seems like a dystopian sci-fi novel. However it’s important to admire him for attempting. Mark didn’t simply guess the farm…he bulldozed it, paved it over with 1000’s of programmers’ pale our bodies, and known as it the following frontier of human connection.
So right here’s the query:
Was it a visionary genius just a few many years too early? Or the costliest instance of “Shiny Toy Syndrome” in tech historical past?
Mark was attempting to create a brand new universe on earth and Elon continues to be eager to ship us to a harmful far distant universe to flee earth.
I believe historical past will inform us who was dumber and thought he was smarter as a result of he had an excessive amount of cash.
Being good at one factor doesn’t imply you’re a genius at every thing. That syndrome is usually known as the “Dunning-Kruger Impact.”
Enter Agentic AI
Right this moment, the promise is even grander: Agentic AI that doesn’t simply reply questions however does issues for you. Your private agent. Your tireless worker. Your digital butler, therapist, and life coach rolled into one.
Sound acquainted? It ought to. As a result of if there’s one factor tech historical past teaches us, it’s that for each smartphone that modifications the world, there’s a Metaverse ready to devour billions and ship nearly nothing.
So earlier than all of us rush to guess the farm on AI brokers that may, let’s be sincere, nonetheless wrestle to order a pizza accurately, perhaps it’s price asking: is that this the following nice leap? Or simply the following shiny toy ready to change into a really costly cautionary story?
Why it issues
Telling the distinction between the fad of a shiny toy vs a pattern that may change the world and make a distinction is difficult to choose from a distance. What appears to be like sensible at the moment can look very dumb sooner or later
Investing in an actual, lasting pattern issues as a result of it drives significant progress and solves real issues, whereas chasing a shiny fad wastes time, cash, and belief.
Selecting correctly shapes a greater future as an alternative of squandering assets on hype that delivers nothing.
By the numbers
Numbers matter. If my Garmin watch doesn’t report my bike trip knowledge with how far I rode and the way excessive I climbed, or my sleep rating…..It by no means occurred.
Meta poured a ton of cash into the Metaverse and thought they might break the universe and make Mark Zuckerberg the “Grasp of the Universe”. Or, perhaps it was a little bit of a “Discipline of Desires”. Construct it and they’ll come. However they didn’t!
One particular person put in some large {dollars} into what he thought was the longer term and at this stage it appears to be like prefer it wasn’t, however only a billionaire’s folly.
He appears to have forgotten a phenomenon of the eleventh commandment. “The knowledge of the crowds.”
It refers back to the statement that the common guess of a giant group of individuals will be remarkably correct—much more correct than most particular person professional guesses.
The traditional instance refers to Francis Galton (1907), who at a rustic honest, requested about 800 folks to guess the load of an ox. Whereas particular person guesses various extensively, the median (or imply) of all guesses was extraordinarily near the precise weight.
Observe the cash?
It seems that the crowds have voted with their wallets and perhaps their collective knowledge could also be very sensible.
AI traders—particularly VCs and main tech gamers—are pouring unprecedented capital into Agentic AI. In Q1 2025 alone, international VC funding for AI startups reached a report $91.5 billion, with over half of that aimed toward constructing autonomous AI brokers
In Europe, roughly $548 million was allotted to AI agent startups in simply the primary six weeks of 2025 Crunchbase Information.
The market’s development projections are staggering. Estimates recommend that the Agentic AI sector may develop from round $5–7 billion in 2024–2025 to $187 billion by 2034—and even $216 billion by 2035—with compound annual development charges close to 40–42% LinkedIn.
Fortune 500 adoption can be exceptional: 79% of those corporations presently have lively Agentic AI tasks and Azure/Redux experiences present that almost 30% of organizations are already working agentic AI, with 44% planning to combine it inside the subsequent yr Blue Prism.
A Georgian survey of 600 execs confirms that 91% in R&D plan to undertake agentic AI, with 45% already piloting it—and over half count on transformational influence on productiveness Georgian.
On the company scale, companies like Microsoft report over $500 million in price financial savings from AI initiatives in 2024 Instances of India, and B2B knowledge from the UK and EU exhibits almost two‑thirds of corporations seeing ROI inside the first yr of AI adoption.
Nonetheless, a sobering projection from Gartner warns that over 40% of agentic AI tasks could also be scrapped by 2027 as a result of price and unclear worth—although additionally they predict such brokers will deal with 15% of routine enterprise choices and be built-in into a 3rd of enterprise apps by 2028. s
What’s “Shiny Toy Syndrome”?
Shiny Toy Syndrome is the tendency to get distracted by new, flashy, or hyped-up applied sciences, instruments, or concepts—with out critically evaluating their actual usefulness or endurance. It’s when pleasure about novelty outweighs sensible judgment.
In enterprise and tech, it exhibits up as chasing the newest pattern just because it’s new, fairly than as a result of it solves an actual drawback higher. The end result? Wasted time, cash, and concentrate on issues that become fads fairly than lasting improvements.
It’s the rationale groups undertake instruments nobody makes use of, traders fund billion-dollar flops, and shoppers purchase devices that collect mud. Recognizing shiny toy syndrome early is about asking: Does this actually make issues higher? Or is it simply new for the sake of latest?
Tips on how to work out if one thing is only a shiny fad and distracting or helpful and recreation altering:
Fads occur as a result of people are wired to like novelty, and entrepreneurs know find out how to amplify that pleasure with hype and guarantees of being forward of the curve. They change into shiny new toys when folks chase the fun of the new with out stopping to ask whether or not it truly solves an actual drawback or delivers lasting worth.
Clue 1: It solves an precise human drawback
The primary clue that one thing is an actual pattern fairly than a passing fad is whether or not it solves an precise, persistent drawback in folks’s lives—and does so in a means that’s higher, cheaper, or simpler than earlier than.
Smartphones didn’t simply look cool; they allow us to carry communication, pictures, and the web in our pockets, creating lasting demand. In contrast, loads of shiny toys—from 3D TVs to Google Glass—failed as a result of they didn’t align with what folks actually wanted or wished sufficient to make the swap.
Clue 2: Accepted by the plenty
One other hallmark of a real pattern is adoption that spreads past early lovers to the mainstream. Search for indicators that ordinary, non-technical persons are utilizing the know-how naturally, with out coaching manuals or costly gear. It additionally helps if the expertise improves over time and there’s an ecosystem of complementary providers. The App Retailer supercharged smartphone adoption by making new capabilities immediately accessible, whereas the Metaverse struggled with clunky {hardware} and nowhere fascinating to go.
Clue 3: The hype-to-results ratio
Fads typically have advertising that utterly outpaces real-world outcomes, with large guarantees and skinny supply. Lengthy-term traits, however, would possibly begin quietly, even boringly, however show themselves by means of repeatable worth and viable enterprise fashions. The most effective rule of thumb? Be curious sufficient to experiment, however skeptical sufficient to ask: “Is that this fixing an actual drawback folks will maintain paying for, or is it simply the following costly distraction?”
And is it delivering actual world outcomes?
The eras of shiny tech toys: A private & cultural historical past
I’ve fallen for FOMO just a few occasions and I’ve been distracted by shiny tech toys. My newest foray into that foible and folly are the Meta Rayban sensible glasses. Is it a fad or will it change the world? I’m nonetheless unsure. However I believe it’s a stepping stone to the longer term.
I used to be additionally tempted by the cell phone when it was the scale of a suitcase and weighed a number of kilograms and also you needed to have it put in in your automotive like a small engine. It didn’t have an web function or an online browser on the time
However was it helpful?
Getting an pressing name whereas driving to resolve a shopper drawback fairly than getting a pager message and trying to find a pay telephone helped me shut 1,000,000 greenback deal.
Smartphones: The shiny toy that modified every thing
The primary iPhone launch in 2007 wasn’t only a product reveal—it was a cultural shift that redefined fashionable life. What started as a shiny luxurious gadget rapidly grew to become the world’s dominant computing platform, integrating communication, pictures, funds, and navigation right into a single indispensable gadget. As of 2024, over 6.8 billion folks worldwide use smartphones (Statista), making them arguably probably the most profitable client know-how in historical past.
Laptops: The workhorse evolution
Whereas they by no means acquired the rock-star hype of smartphones, laptops reworked work, creativity, and mobility. From the chunky IBM ThinkPads of the 90s to at the moment’s smooth MacBooks and Chromebooks, they enabled distant work and empowered generations of creators. World laptop computer shipments reached 237 million models in 2021 alone (Canalys), displaying that this “shiny toy” didn’t simply final—it matured fantastically into an on a regular basis important.
Social media: Connection or dependancy?
Initially offered as a approach to join with family and friends, social media advanced right into a trillion-dollar business constructed on surveillance capitalism and algorithmic manipulation. Platforms like Fb, Instagram, and TikTok boast billions of customers—however they’ve additionally confronted fierce criticism for fueling polarization, psychological well being points, and misinformation (Pew Analysis). It’s the final word paradox: a shiny toy that labored financially past creativeness, but stays one of the criticized industries on Earth.
The Metaverse: The $36 billion shiny toy
Arguably the largest shiny toy syndrome failure of the final decade, the Metaverse was Mark Zuckerberg’s bet-the-company gamble that most individuals didn’t need. By 2023, Meta had spent over $36 billion on its Actuality Labs division (Enterprise Insider), but consumer adoption remained dismal. With clunky, costly headsets and restricted real-world utility, the imaginative and prescient fell flat, proving you can’t brute-force cultural change—regardless of how a lot you spend
Good glasses: Promise and actuality
Good glasses have lengthy promised seamless augmented actuality however have principally delivered area of interest curiosity. Google Glass famously crashed with shoppers over privateness fears and restricted utility, whereas Snap Spectacles and Ray-Ban Meta have seen solely modest adoption. Even with fashionable designs and higher cameras, mainstream customers nonetheless don’t see a killer use case, leaving sensible glasses as an concept perennially ready for its second (The Verge).
Digital Actuality: Immersive, however not important
VR has been the “subsequent large factor” for almost a decade, however mass-market success stays elusive. Headsets like Meta Quest 2 have offered effectively amongst players (with ~20 million models shipped, The Verge), and coaching/enterprise use circumstances present actual promise. But excessive prices, consolation points, and restricted must-have content material maintain VR from changing into important for many shoppers—it’s immersive, spectacular, however nonetheless caught simply across the nook.
Agentic AI: The latest shiny toy?
However first “What’s agentic AI?”
“Agentic AI is synthetic intelligence designed to behave autonomously in your behalf, proactively planning and finishing duties fairly than simply responding to prompts. In essence it acts in your behalf fairly than simply creating nice concepts, photographs and content material.”
In the event you go onto LinkedIn and have a look you will note many posts that image it as a panacea and simple to do. The fact is far completely different.
Agentic AI is the newest dazzling promise in tech in 2025: methods that don’t simply reply to your questions however proactively do issues for you.
Suppose autonomous brokers that deal with planning, workflows, even reasoning steps throughout apps. The hype is plain—VCs are pouring in billions, founders are promising human-level assistants, and media headlines can’t get sufficient of the “AI brokers will change your workforce” narrative.
However scratch the floor, and also you’ll see the same old indicators of shiny toy syndrome: many demos are smoke and mirrors, with rigorously curated use circumstances that gloss over actual limitations in reasoning, reminiscence, and context retention. Right this moment’s brokers typically hallucinate, get caught, or want important hand-holding. There’s an actual danger of overpromising, identical to the Metaverse, with breathless advertising outpacing precise utility.
So is Agentic AI simply one other fad?
Not essentially. It’s probably a real long-term pattern—however one which’s early, messy, and overhyped within the brief time period.
The underlying functionality is actual: AI that may coordinate duties and automate data work may remodel productiveness, simply as spreadsheets and engines like google did earlier than. The sensible method isn’t to dismiss it however to interact rigorously: experiment, prototype, be taught the bounds—and keep skeptical of grandiose claims.
In the long run, Agentic AI would possibly change into boringly important, however solely after the hype burns off and the know-how matures.
A framework to contemplate when differentiating hype from the fact of Agentic AI
Listed below are 4 factors to contemplate to verify actuality isn’t overwhelmed by hype.
#1: Utility
Agentic AI guarantees excessive utility by automating repetitive data work, orchestrating workflows, and serving as a private or workforce assistant—doubtlessly saving time and growing productiveness.
However present implementations typically wrestle with accuracy, reliability, and context administration, so the actual utility at the moment continues to be area of interest and experimental, although the long-term potential is critical.
#2: Adoption limitations
Obstacles stay substantial: customers want belief that brokers received’t make pricey errors, interfaces should be intuitive, and plenty of workflows require customization or oversight.
Enterprise consumers are cautious of safety and compliance dangers, whereas on a regular basis customers could also be intimidated by complexity or dissatisfied by limitations.
#3: Ecosystem readiness
The ecosystem is quickly forming however not absolutely mature.
Whereas there are promising agent frameworks (OpenAI Assistants API, LangChain, AutoGen), integration with present software program, dependable API entry, and standardized tooling are nonetheless evolving—which means constructing and deploying helpful brokers at scale stays a technical problem.
#4: Cultural alignment
Culturally, there’s each pleasure and skepticism.
Customers need productiveness boosts, but in addition concern lack of management, errors, and moral issues over automation. For Agentic AI to attain mass adoption, it might want to align with consumer expectations for transparency, security, and real helpfulness—simply as smartphones and cloud providers did over time.
Remaining ideas
Know-how will all the time tempt us with shiny new toys—some that remodel our lives and others that drain assets chasing hype. From smartphones that grew to become indispensable to the Metaverse that burned billions, historical past exhibits the significance of crucial analysis over blind enthusiasm.
Agentic AI sits at this crossroads at the moment: it’s bursting with potential to reshape work, but in addition dangers repeating previous patterns of overpromising and underdelivering. The problem for all of us—builders, traders, customers—is to remain curious sufficient to discover its prospects whereas being disciplined sufficient to demand actual, lasting worth.
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