- U.S. solidifies place as high pure fuel producer and LNG exporter in 2024.
- European pure fuel demand and manufacturing decline, with important drops in Russian imports.
- Asia Pacific area, led by China and India, drives international LNG demand progress.
In June, the Power Institute launched the 2024 Statistical Assessment of World Power. The Assessment supplies a complete image of provide and demand for main power sources on a country-level foundation. Annually, I do a collection of articles overlaying the Assessment’s findings.
In three earlier articles, I mentioned:
As we speak I’ll focus on developments in pure fuel manufacturing and consumption.
Overview
International pure fuel demand elevated by just one billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023, a marginal rise of 0.02%, barely above the 2019 pre-COVID stage. Whereas pure fuel maintained a 29% share of world fossil gasoline consumption, its share of whole main power consumption has fallen by 0.5% since 2019.
International fuel manufacturing remained regular in comparison with 2022, with the U.S. persevering with to be the most important producer, supplying a couple of quarter of the world’s fuel. Nevertheless, Europe skilled a manufacturing decline of roughly 7%, whereas the Russia noticed an absolute decline of 5%. The highest 4 areas, which account for 80% of world fuel manufacturing, are additionally chargeable for 85% of its consumption.
Pure fuel costs in Europe and Asia dropped by 30% from their 2022 file highs, averaging round $13/mmBtu. U.S. Henry Hub costs fell much more dramatically, reducing by 60% to a mean of $2.5/mmBtu, returning to their pre-COVID 2019 ranges.
Russia’s share of European Union fuel imports continued to say no, dropping from 45% in 2021 to 24% in 2022, and additional to fifteen% in 2023, putting it behind Norway and the U.S.
LNG provide grew by practically 2% (10 bcm) to succeed in 549 bcm in 2023. Over the previous eight years, U.S. LNG exports surged from 0.2 bcm in 2013 to 114 bcm in 2023, making the U.S. the world’s main LNG provider, surpassing Qatar and Australia. The U.S. elevated its provide by practically 10%, whereas Qatar’s provide dropped by 2%. Russia noticed decreases in each LNG and pipeline exports, with LNG dropping by practically 2% (0.8 bcm) and pipeline provides falling by round 24% (30 bcm).
The Asia Pacific area, significantly China, India, and different non-OECD international locations, drove international progress in LNG demand, growing by 11 bcm, 2.6 bcm, and seven.6 bcm, respectively. Conversely, LNG imports to Europe and OECD Asia Pacific international locations declined by 3 bcm and 11 bcm, respectively.
China reclaimed its place because the world’s largest LNG importer, adopted by Japan and South Korea, collectively accounting for about 45% of world LNG commerce. Total, pure fuel pipeline internet commerce decreased by roughly 8% (35 bcm) in 2023, with European pipeline imports dropping by 26% (40 bcm), largely because of a 91% discount in provides from Russia.
The Prime Producers
As was the case with crude oil, the USA was the world’s high pure fuel producer in 2023. The U.S. produced 25.5% of the world’s fuel in 2023, extending its lead over Russia and Iran.
“Change” displays the proportion change from 2023.
The international locations within the Prime 10 are the identical as a yr in the past, besides a number of international locations modified positions. China made a giant transfer up from 2022 and will quickly threaten Iran’s spot within the third place.
The Prime Customers
The U.S. additionally maintains a dominant lead over different international locations in pure fuel consumption, however the improve from 2022 was solely 0.8%.
There was extra of a shakeup among the many high 10 customers. Mexico made a major bounce from final yr, as did China, and the UK fell off the listing, changed by the UAE.
Conclusions
In conclusion, the 2024 Statistical Assessment of World Power confirmed a marginal improve in international pure fuel demand, reflecting the continued restoration from the pandemic. The US continues to dominate each manufacturing and consumption, with important will increase in LNG exports solidifying its place because the world’s main LNG provider.
Europe’s declining pure fuel demand and manufacturing, coupled with a dramatic lower in Russian fuel imports, mark a major shift within the area’s power panorama. In the meantime, the Asia Pacific area, pushed by China and India, has turn into a serious pressure in international LNG demand.
These developments underline the dynamic and evolving nature of the worldwide pure fuel market, formed by geopolitical shifts, technological developments, and altering consumption patterns. As we transfer ahead, understanding these modifications might be essential for stakeholders within the power sector.
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